Qualitative literature shows that many abroad-living communities of migrants have had a decisive influence on conflicts occurring in their home country, and that the peace-wrecking or peace-building nature of their role has evolved over time. Our investigation of the relationship between emigration and conflict in the country of origin, based on country-level panel data, suggests that emigration tends to become peace-building over time. To enlighten this empirical result, we build a two-group theoretical model of conflict, allowing a third group, constituted of migrants, to interact with the home economy.

While migrants’ involvement in the conflict is likely to participate to violence escalation in a static framework, we find that, in a dynamic setting, the evolution of the number and characteristics of emigrants over time can turn abroad-living communities into a peace-building force for the origin country.”

Co-authors : Fabio Mariani (UCLouvain) & Thierry Verdier (PSE)

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